Interactive papers about recurring financial decisions: what the arithmetic establishes, what the evidence measures, and where household circumstances still control the answer.
The title refers to durable decision structures, not certainty about markets or people. Each paper separates identities, observed evidence, model output, and limitations so the reader can inspect the reasoning rather than inherit a recommendation.
Last evidence review: August 2026
Identity + modeled
What do recurring costs do to long-horizon wealth?
How recurring costs, inflation, and allocation assumptions affect long-horizon wealth.
Measured + modeled
Why does diversification change the range of outcomes?
Why diversification changes the range of outcomes even when expected return looks similar.
Identity + measured + modeled
When is investment income a label for total return?
How dividends, option premiums, and leveraged products relate to total return after friction.
Literature review + illustrative
Where do familiar personal-finance rules stop working?
Ten familiar rules tested against theory, evidence, examples, and household boundaries.
Evidence review + modeled
What does an income-first closed-end-fund strategy establish?
A CEF retirement strategy tested against distribution accounting, wrapper risk, and simple benchmarks.
Decision framework + modeled
How should a household price the decision to diversify employer stock?
How to diversify employer stock while pricing taxes, fees, implementation, and retained risk.
Identity + measured + modeled
What does the vig take, and how sharp do you have to be to clear it?
Posted betting prices, parlay juice, and prediction-market fees — with the sample size required before a winning season is evidence.
Primary texts + source criticism
Once the arithmetic is sound, what is the money for?
Fourteen public-domain texts set in tension over provision, labor, power, accumulation, finitude, and use.
Decision framework + protocol facts + scenarios
What can a non-sovereign asset be worth when it pays no cash flow?
A field guide to Bitcoin value, sleeve sizing, custody, wrappers, stablecoins, programmable networks, privacy, and failure modes.
Fees, Pond, and Yield move from recurring friction to diversification and total-return accounting.
Myths tests familiar advice against evidence and the conditions that make a rule useful or incomplete.
Retirement and Equity apply the same discipline to CEF income claims and concentrated employer stock.
Vig prices sports books and prediction markets as posted holes, not as ways to build wealth.
Enough asks what financial competence is meant to protect, release, and return to ordinary life.
Crypto separates Bitcoin’s non-sovereign thesis from valuation, sizing, custody, stablecoins, networks, and privacy.
Identities, historical measurements, literature findings, and model outputs answer different questions. The papers label them accordingly.
Inputs, units, dates, return conventions, and known exclusions sit beside the model or in an attached method note.
Fees, exposures, taxes, and time periods are aligned before a strategy is compared with a simpler alternative.
A model is not a forecast, a distribution is not necessarily income, and a general result is not an individualized decision.
These publications are independent educational research. They are not individualized investment, tax, legal, or accounting advice. Models depend on their stated assumptions and are not forecasts. Decisions involving taxes, legal restrictions, or concentrated positions warrant qualified review.
Drew Breyer’s portfolio · Reading and references
The work is public and independent. Bitcoin support is optional and does not change access, coverage, or conclusions.